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Neoriceisgood's avatar
Friday, December 22 2017 - 12:00 AM
By: Neoriceisgood

Guessing game.

Would you actually score points just by guessing?

predict how many people are in

Q1 / Q2
Q3 / Q4

Or if you're especially daring, give the specific bunker for each individual.

Let's see who would do best at this task despite not having spirit.

15379: Probored - Friday, December 22 2017 - 12:09 AM

Noah Bunker 17

Thats my guess

15380: -F- - Friday, December 22 2017 - 12:34 AM

I can get the most minus points if I say all of our classmates + Garth + every other spirit user in existence are in bunker 17, except for Noah, who is in every other bunker except this one.

15381: -skimmer- - Friday, December 22 2017 - 12:36 AM

I honestly doubt Noah remembers the names of most of the students.

15382: orangetree - Friday, December 22 2017 - 12:46 AM

Oops, it appears that I had started this process already, so I'll stick with Felix in bunker 6.

15383: HanMK - Friday, December 22 2017 - 1:10 AM

Do we include Noah in our guess? I'm gonna do so.

Q1= 4
Q2 = 0
Q3 = 3
Q4 = 2

And now for a longshot:
Nr. 18 is Felix

15384: Brilliand - Friday, December 22 2017 - 1:36 AM

I guess 0 for every quadrant, except 1 for the quadrant I'm in, and associate my name with the bunker marker on the map, for an average of 6 points!

15385: Djitt - Friday, December 22 2017 - 1:39 AM

Assuming he can detect them, is Noah the kind of guy who will only "detect" people who can handle losing some points, or is he going to keep someone from hitting 50?

15386: Centaur - Friday, December 22 2017 - 2:31 AM

I cannot use the <s>Force</s> Spirit to detect, so taking this as a probability theory exercise.

Assuming uniform distribution of 8 people other than me over 19 bunkers other than mine, the probability for each quadrant other than mine to contain K people is C(5,K)*C(14,8-K)/C(19,8), giving probabilities [3.97%, 22.70%, 39.73%, 26.49%, 6.62%, 0.48%] for each K from 0 to 5 respectively. For my own quadrant, it’s C(4,K-1)*C(15,9-K)/C(19,8), with probabilities [0, 8.51%, 34.06%, 39.73%, 15.89%, 1.81%].

The scoring matrix as I understand it (rows: actual occcupancy, columns: my guess, 0 to 5):

[[0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5]
[0 1 0 -1 -2 -3]
[0 1 2 1 0 -1]
[0 1 2 3 2 1]
[0 1 2 3 4 3]
[0 1 2 3 4 5]]

Multiplying the probability vector by each column, I find the expectations for each guess. Other quadrants: [0, 0.92, 1.39, 1.06, 0.20, -0.79] points if I guess 0 to 5 respectively; my quadrant: [0, 1, 1.83, 1.98, 1.33, 0.37].

I guess 2 people for each quadrant other than mine, 3 people in my quadrant, and I guess I am in my bunker, for a total of 3*1.39 + 1.98 + 5 = 11.14 points.

15387: Centaur - Friday, December 22 2017 - 2:38 AM

Addition/correction to my previous post: If undershooting (e.g. guessing 2 when there are 3) does not score any points, the situation changes. In that case, it’s more rewarding to guess 3 for each quadrant, for a total average of 8.98 points.

15388: Atlas - Friday, December 22 2017 - 2:44 AM

Felix in number 7
Garth in number 5
The ponytail guy who's name i can never remember in number 11
Bennie Bro in 15
The Dunce blonde in 20

15389: Chameon - Friday, December 22 2017 - 6:52 AM

@Brilliand: Yeah, it actually rewards acting in that manner. Not by terribly much, but so long as you don't over-guess, you earn points. That being said, Noah kinda wants a heavy win here, judging by previous actions.

@Skimmer: Yeah, I fully agree. I do wonder if marking it as "Blond and red haired lady with bubblegum" would count towards his points sufficiently.

15390: Tom - Friday, December 22 2017 - 7:42 AM

Fascinating - it's like gambling, but with magic.

15391: RNGesus - Friday, December 22 2017 - 7:51 AM

I think the guards are spirit users so 22 plus garth, 23. I'm just going to guess:
5 / 6
6 / 6

15392: itblobboy - Friday, December 22 2017 - 2:07 PM

Garth is in 1

15393: Leo - Friday, December 22 2017 - 2:43 PM

I guess Garth is in 16, and that there are 4 people in quadrant 4.

15394: B - Friday, December 22 2017 - 3:23 PM

You wrote "incorrectlE" where I think you meant "incorrectlY"

15395: Whispers of Sorrow - Friday, December 22 2017 - 9:30 PM

I'll go two each way.

15396: James Brokanon - Friday, December 22 2017 - 10:26 PM

2 1
2 3

Cards is in q2

Garth in q1

15397: Sid - Friday, December 22 2017 - 11:35 PM

A lot of people have been assuming this, but can you guess yourself for the specific information? Seems like it would not be allowed.

15398: Bisected - Saturday, December 23 2017 - 2:44 AM

It's looking to be a interesting financial year.

15399: Cheshire - Saturday, December 23 2017 - 3:01 AM

2 in each quadrant other than Noah's, 3 in Noah's quadrant, Garth is in bunker 1 since he didn't want to walk all the way to a different bunker in the pouring rain.

15400: Cheshire - Saturday, December 23 2017 - 3:04 AM

As an addendum to my last comment, even if Garth ISN'T in bunker 1, if Noah's sense of direction and distance is good, he at least knows that Garth is in the same bunker as the guard. Assuming that left in the comic is west, there's a decent chance that that's bunker 3. (Or still bunker 1, possibly, since a 2D medium doesn't really convey 3D info well).

15401: Spirit user - Saturday, December 23 2017 - 4:35 AM

In bunker nr 11 is... burk?

15408: James Brokanon - Saturday, December 23 2017 - 10:35 AM

2 1
2 3

Cards is in q2

Garth in q1


1, 2,